UK CPI inflation forecast 2025

27 Nov UK CPI inflation forecast 2025

Between 1961 and 1990, temperatures in England averaged nine degrees Celsius, and from 2013 to 2022, average temperatures in the country had increased to 10.3 degrees Celsius. Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI, along with the CPIH (Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs) are usually preferred by the UK government, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares for example, are calculated using the RPI, while increases in pension payments are calculated using CPI, when this is used as the uprating factor. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK.

Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Like the Retail Price Index, the Consumer Price Index inflation rate also reached a recent peak in October 2022. In that month, prices were rising by 11.1 percent and did not fall below double figures until April 2023. This fall was largely due to slower price increases in key sectors such as energy, which drove a significant amount of the 2022 wave of inflation.

• As of December 2024, this was 3.2 percent, slightly higher than the overall CPI rate, but more aligned with the overall figure than it was in 2022 and 2023.
• After energy prices in 2023 fell relative to 2022, the overall inflation rate in the UK declined quite rapidly, with core inflation overtaking the overall rate in July 2023.
• The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households.
• From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis.
• The UK inflation rate was 3.6 percent in October 2025, down from 3.8 percent in the previous two months, which was the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024.

Monthly average daily temperatures in the United Kingdom (UK) from January 2015 to November 2024

In the three months to September 2025, average weekly earnings in the United Kingdom grew by 4.6 percent. In the same month, the inflation rate for the Consumer Price Index was 3.6 percent, indicating that wages were rising faster than prices that month. In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.5 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.5 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029.

Other statistics on the topicWeather in the United Kingdom

As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the education sector, at 7.5percent, with prices increasing at the slowest rate in the clothing and footwear sector. One of the main consequences of high inflation and low wage growth throughout 2022 and 2023 was an increase in industrial action in the UK. In December 2022, for example, there were approximately 830,000 working days lost due to labor disputes.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024. The UK inflation rate was 3.6 percent in October 2025, down from 3.8 percent in the previous two months, which was the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years.

The most important key figures provide you with a compact summary of the topic of “The UK economy” and take you straight to the corresponding statistics. The most important key figures provide you with a compact summary of the topic of “The United Kingdom” and take you straight to the corresponding statistics. The most important key figures provide you with a compact summary of the topic of “UK GDP” and take you straight to the corresponding statistics. Unsurprisingly, the heat wave that spread across the British Isles in 2018 was the result of particularly sunny weather.

Throughout this month, workers across various industry sectors were involved in industrial disputes, such as nurses, train drivers, and driving instructors. Many of the workers who took part in strikes were part of the UK’s public sector, which saw far weaker wage growth than that of the private sector throughout 2022. Widespread industrial action continued into 2023, with approximately 303,000 workers involved in industrial disputes in March 2023. There was far less industrial action by 2024, however, due to settlements in many of the disputes, although some are ongoing as of 2025.

From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to non gamstop casinos the ongoing inflation crisis. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008. The highest average temperature recorded in 2024 until November was in August, at 16.8 degrees Celsius. Since 2015, the highest average daily temperature in the UK was registered in July 2018, at 18.7 degrees Celsius. One noticeable anomaly during this period was in December 2015, when the average daily temperature reached 9.5 degrees Celsius. This month also experienced the highest monthly rainfall in the UK since before 2014, with England, Wales, and Scotland suffering widespread flooding.

Inflation nevertheless remains elevated, fueled not only by high food inflation, but also by underlying core inflation. As of February 2025, the overall CPI inflation rate was 2.8 percent, although an uptick in inflation is expected later in the year, with a rate of 3.7 percent forecast for the third quarter of the year. Another way of measuring inflation is to strip out the volatility of energy and food prices and look at the underlying core inflation rate.